Multiple positive support egg prices higher
Release time:
Oct 20,2018
in stock prices rebound in the week after the holiday
According to the review of egg in stock prices over the years, the in stock price of eggs has fluctuated around the National Day in the past seven years. The first day after the National Day is basically a decline or a steady adjustment. The main reason is that the trade circulation during the National Day is reduced, farmers and traders have inventory, and they choose to reduce the price to take the goods. At the same time, the terminal demand after the holiday begins to enter the seasonal off-season, prices are mostly in the doldrums. The specific trend of egg in stock prices after the holiday is still directly related to the overall domestic supply and demand atmosphere. The production capacity is loose and the demand is flat. The drop in egg prices after the holiday is correspondingly large. Similar to the situation that the production capacity is expected to be tight this year and the demand side has the impact of African swine fever epidemic to stimulate the increase in egg purchases, the egg in stock has shown a situation of stopping the decline and recovering after the inventory is digested.
The slow recovery of laying hens is still at an all-time low.
The latest stock of laying hens in September 2018 was 1.088 billion, an increase of 1.90 percent from the previous month and a decrease of 6.59 percent from last year. The stock of laying hens in September increased slightly compared with August. The reasons are as follows: 1. April-May, a large number of supplementary breeding chicks entered the opening period in September, and the number of newly added laying hens was more than the number of old chickens eliminated in the month; 2., although the Mid-Autumn Festival has passed in September, there has been no obvious seasonal decline. Coastal areas have experienced periodic increases due to typhoon weather, while northern areas have been affected by the laying hen epidemic, supply is more tight, in addition to the double section before the production area of domestic sales to drive up egg prices, egg breeding profits are better, farmers old chicken elimination will be low.
The latest 59.63 million chicks were raised in September 2018, down 5.99 per cent month-on-month and 26.51 per cent year-on-year. In terms of scale, the number of chicks raised by farmers with less than 20000 large-scale layers decreased, the number of chicks raised by farmers with 20000-100000 large-scale layers increased, and the number of chicks raised by farmers with more than 100000 large-scale layers decreased. Affected by environmental restrictions in September, farmers were blocked from replenishing the fences. In addition, the opening period of replenishing the fences in September corresponds to around the Spring Festival next year. Although the breeding of laying hens has been in a profit period this year and the farmers of laying hens are more willing to replenish the fences, the probability of the stock of laying hens will increase next year, and the demand for eggs is off-season after the festival. Farmers of smaller scale still have a wait-and-see mentality.
Although the stock of laying hens increased month on month in September, the current stock of laying hens is still at a low level in the same period of the previous year. The stock of laying hens increased significantly in the first three quarters compared with the same period last year, but it is difficult to make up for the vacancy after the elimination of old hens. Moreover, environmental protection continues to be strictly implemented this year, which has greatly hit the small stock of laying hens.
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